Towards a smooth return to the real estate market in 2022

While rates are gradually rising, and after an unprecedented 2021 in terms of sales volume in the old sector, this year should return to a more normal pace.

In Paris, the rise in property prices marks a long pause. The capital is also an exception in real estate, where prices tend to decline. A decline which, however, was not the end of the game for sales as the latter returned to pre-crisis levels. Elsewhere, spurred on by buyers’ desire for space and comfort, the property market has recorded record prices, but also sales. In mid-sized and/or coastal cities, prices have risen, sometimes in double digits.

“Thus, nationally, prices have risen by an average of 10.3% over the last 24 months, a pace we have not seen since the period 2009-2011,” notes MeilleursAgents.

New locomotives

“The time when the capital and the ten largest French agglomerations played the role of a locomotive seems to have really passed. From now on, it is the rural areas that record the highest price increases!” confirms the pricing platform. Prices in suburban areas rose 13.1% in 2 years and 9.5% in more isolated municipalities, according to MeilleursAgents.

2021 as an anomaly in the market with almost 1.2 million sales, according to notaries. There are several reasons for this flight: catching up with medium-sized cities, the postponement of sales from 2020 (the year of imprisonment) to 2021, and, finally, the attractiveness of real estate rates and a shelter made of stone in times of crisis. However, 2022 should mark the end of the euphoria and the start of a confirmed rate hike.

Movement towards rates and credit

“Average rates continued to rise in February: 0.93% (+2 hundredths) over 15 years; 1.03% (+4 hundredths) over 20 years and 1.21% (+2 hundredths) over 25 years,” said Olivier Lendrevy, president of the KAFPI broker. Rates have already risen in February, and another element to be followed by the evolution of the 10-year OAT, which is one of the reference indicators of interest rates.

“The 10-year OAT is up significantly, hitting 0.65% today versus 0.33% at the end of January. Such a situation, if it continued, could push banks to continue the movement of a gradual increase in mortgage rates, ”the boss emphasizes. KAFPI.

Another element to watch out for changes in rates is the reform of the borrower’s insurance, which can be terminated at any time, with the end of the health questionnaire up to 400,000 euros loan two for the same age at the end of the loan 60 years. At the same time, price growth locally begins to slow down, although it remains at a high level.

Decrease in inventory

In some cities where prices have risen sharply, real estate agents are seeing the start of a downturn. In some cities, the number of properties for sale is particularly low (Cherbourg, for example) and lead times have been shortened, a sign of market dynamism that should be seen again this year. “The volume of transactions in old housing, which was said to have declined at the end of 2021, may stabilize in 2022 at a still high level, close to the level of the end of 2019,” adds David Ambrosiano, President of the Superior Council of Notaries. .

“Sales are a little less frequent. We feel a certain wait and see attitude on the part of sellers. One explanation could be the political context of the presidential election,” said Rafael Renzulli, commercial director of Espaces-Atypical. “Stocks of goods are growing faster than before, at a higher level than 10 or 15 years ago. We remain vigilant but not worried,” he continues.