Three Scenarios for the Future of Technology

World technology companies“,”Digital Cold War“, Where “Digital Detox“? The future is likely to consist of a combination of these three scenarios. Ludovic Sinkin. If the first two pull the thread of already existing trends, then the third scenario is based on weak signals that can hardly be ignored.

“Global technology companies”: GAFAM dominance

In this scenario “several multinational corporations, mostly American and perhaps a little Chinese, dominate digital BtoC services and promote digital technologies.“. So far, nothing revolutionary: this is more or less the current situation in which GAFAM, and more precisely MAAAM (Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft) dominate the digital services market. But this dominance may become even more intensified, despite attempts to regulate European or American state power.

“An analogy is often drawn between GAFAM and web giants. It’s not quite right. There is a caveat: GAFAM are players whose goal is to lock you into the ecosystem. These companies want you to be with them in the morning and end your day with them.”

On the horizon, it seems that nothing, or almost nothing, can challenge the dominance of these companies because they have been able to create very high barriers to entry and have created powerful competitive advantages through data accumulation. “These companies are beginning to have the power of the order of some states,” emphasizes Ludovic Sinkin. In the future, “we can imagine that one or two people will come into the game, maybe a Chinese actor.”

“Digital Cold War”: resistance of the state

In this scenario “States have realized that pure players are strong and sometimes serve competing countries. Therefore, they organize their own resistance: each block uses its weapons to secure its position in the world game.sums up Ludovic Sinkin. Each bloc has its assets and its weapons: China, its vast population, its startup network, and its centralized regime; Europe, its vast market and its regulatory power; USA, its cultural “soft power” and dominance GAFAM.

Within these blocks, we see more and more bans on technologies and certain players.”, he explains, citing the example of Huawei, which was categorically forbidden to integrate technologies Google on his phones. Technological bans also appear for ethical reasons, such as in the European Union, which seeks to regulate the use of facial recognition, or in China, which severely restricts video games for the smallest.

We are beginning to see the end of the supply of raw materials needed to create technology.

“Digital Detox”: on a forced decline

The first two scenarios are based on the same logic: an extension of existing trends. But what happens if the phenomenon of rupture occurs? “The big question is, will crooked forecasts survive the environmental crisis?asks Ludovic Sinkin. And add:Scenario Digital detox is to take into account that the society in which we live – which is nevertheless globally solution-oriented in terms of technology – may come to an end in the coming decades. Not in 100 years, but in 20-30 years“.

Mineral depletion, energy crisis, geopolitical tensions… Clouds are gathering. “We are beginning to see the end of the supply of raw materials needed to create technology.“, emphasizes, in particular, the CEOOctoextracting the known stocks of antimony or tin necessary for the manufacture of terminals, the depletion of which is predicted over a horizon of 4 to 17 years …

But that’s not all. Energy will also be in short supply: “The scenario is likely that the socket, which always has electricity, will become something less obvious in the end. Most likely, in the next five years, we will face massive power outages in some regions of France.”

Necessary awareness

This perspective should lead to an awareness and a change in the approach in our attitude towards technology. “There are digital products that we can no longer produce, there are things that we no longer have the right to do today because we do not have the resources to do so. You must know.Thus, faced with a lack of resources and energy, developers of technology solutions will have to ask themselves more than ever about the usefulness and relevance of what they produce in order to think in terms of progress, and not just innovation.

“Technology is both the cure and the poison of our modern civilization. It has the fastest growing carbon footprint of any industry, but it is also a technology that can help us take control of our environmental impact.”

The world of tomorrow must be very different from the world we know. He will change quickly. The question is, how do we adapt? It is important to have a vision, especially when you are in a position of responsibility. But you also need to be able to deal with rapidly changing conditions. Finally, the only quality necessary for the future world is to learn how to learn,» concludes Ludovic Sinkin.