Yesterday we were still in the “war” mode, and, unfortunately, it is not going to stop. And this, even if it would seem that the two belligerents might be thinking about sitting down to the table and finding a solution that does not involve the use of rockets or other tanks of the latest generation – although, as far as Russian weapons are concerned, in terms of equipment, they are not always refers to the latest generation. In general, Putin is completely crazy, it seems that no one understands what he is doing and what he wants (especially me), but yesterday a glimmer of hope dawned. And then Powell showed up.
Audio dated March 3, 2022
Testimony of the Messiah
As you know, or as you knew, yesterday Mr. Jerome Powell was called to the entire American establishment to come and say a good word and explain to the politicians what he was going to do to curb inflation, bring it under control and make it transitional. , we, too, were waiting for him to find out how he was going to stop the war, increase bread, make the paralyzed walk and turn his blood into Budweiser.
Thus, the head of the Fed turned out to be on a turn as expected and did not particularly disappoint his audience, since even if he was very cautious, he planned to raise the rate by only 0.25%. Hearing these words, I couldn’t help but imagine how the analysts who predicted 7 to 9 rate hikes in 2022 would rush to their offices to rush to rewrite a 400-page report, including 147 disclaimers, to say that if they are wrong, it is not their fault. Moreover, there is no global warming either, and in these new reports we can read that it will be more like a 4-5 times increase. And again, it will depend on UKRAINE.
Therefore, Jerome Powell will propose a 0.25% increase in two weeks, and from now on the Fed FUNDS give a 0% chance of seeing a 0.5% increase on March 16th. If everyone is revising their forecasts, then there is Bullard, St. Louis Fed boss, the most hawkish Fed president ever, who jumped to the ceiling, shouting that we are not going to curb inflation, and we will all die. But well, it’s not Jerome Powell who wants to. Let us also add that Powell’s caution is also related to the war, since he stated that he was following the subject closely. Oh good ? No kidding ?
War and rebound
So we’ve had a general recovery with Powell’s backing, but there’s also talk of talks in Ukraine, a ceasefire and talks. Meanwhile, sanctions continue to fall. The Japanese will no longer export cars to Russia and Nike will no longer sell sneakers there… The Americans want to pillory all the oligarchs, freeze their assets and put them on the table for the poor, Abramovich wants to sell Chelsea to help the Ukrainian people.
It seems that if Putin wants to restore the USSR of the 80s, then he is off to a good start, because there will be the same economic conditions and the same three-hour queues for a piece of meat. If yes, then they will resume the production of Trabans ..
Experts and Rubini
In this very special atmosphere, the experts are very cautious, but still go out of their way. Their fears are focused on inflation, and they think that if the war continues, inflation over oil or raw materials will be very expensive.
Just looking at wheat and oil…two things that we might need a little bit of in the near future, we still get the impression that if Putin continues to spoil the region, it might not be easy indeed.
And then, for those who regularly read this column, I don’t know if you remember how many times I said that when we are 100 on the barrel, we will talk about a recession???
Well, this morning all you have to do is open the Barrons and you’ll see there’s a guy inside who says…
- … 100% growth in a barrel within a year causes a recession.. and this was confirmed in 1990 – 2000 and 2008…
- There, as far as we are concerned, we are very definitely up 83%, but we are still above $100, so I don’t know if this is an indication, but I said so…
- I told you so…
- I told you so…
After this short phase of self-confidence, it was time to move on to the intervention of Nouriel Roubini. Roubini, who reappeared in the press, as if every time the end of the world is approaching. So he took the time to write an article about how this will end badly, that this is crap and that analysts underestimate the fact that consumer confidence will collapse, that raw materials will rise in price, that this war will last longer than expected and turned into a cold war 2 return of revenge and that we could have a stagflationary shock…
Stagflation = rising inflation and stagnant activity.. that’s what we experienced in 73-74-75. well, I was 4 years old and the behavior of the markets didn’t matter to me, but the fact remains that during these periods, you have to buy valuables, finance, non-essential consumer goods, telecommunications and remember that Roubini was right once in his life – during the mortgage crisis, which is thirteen years old, he says that we will all die every three months or whenever, when there is a problem.
The rest of the time he is in a nightclub.
Asia this morning
This morning in Asia, we salute the support provided by the Federal Reserve Bank and let a glimmer of hope hang over the war. We will never know. However, the Nikkei and Hong Kong’s HSI edged up slightly, while China edged down slightly, and China is still the only international support Putin can find. He is not the smallest, but he is the only one. And so far, the US has not yet decided to freeze Xi Jinping’s assets.
Otherwise, gold is therefore always well placed, but it is looking for a second wind. Oil soars higher and higher. It is currently trading at $114.38 – thankfully I topped it up yesterday! And Bitcoin is pulling back 2% and dust has failed in its bullish breakout at $45,000.
In individual stocks, Rivian shed 13% on a 20% price hike announced yesterday. Nordstrom, who jumped 40% because they performed better than expected and raised their forecast, but now there are questions about whether they can even hit their targets. Ford jumped 8% because they’re going to spin off their electric division… I love the ’68 Mustang Fastback more, but hey. And then there’s Snowflake – the most beautiful, wonderful, sexiest company of 2021 has revised its forecast downward. Loved the market! It should open 20-25% lower this afternoon. We see that market sanctions for disappointing boxes are a kind of Russian diplomacy. We shoot first, and then we’ll talk if there’s anything left.
Otherwise, Apple announces an upcoming event on March 8, they should announce a cheap 5G iPhone, a new iPad, and a general price cut. No, I’m kidding about the stakes. There is also Abramovich who sells Chelsea FC, you can make offers by email if you are interested in supporting a team of millionaires who run after the ball and ride in the colors of Lambo fuscia or fluorescent yellow. Not to mention that Amazon is closing 68 bookstores. It’s good, I didn’t even know they had it.
In terms of economic indicators, we will have PMI in England, the minutes of the last meeting of the ECB, which are of no interest to anyone except the ECB. The US will also have reports on jobless claims and non-manufacturing ISM. And then, for those who didn’t realize that the Fed would only raise rates by 0.25% in 12 days, Jerome Powell will repeat what he did yesterday.
For now, futures are up 0.2%, otherwise we’re watching CNN. Have a nice day and see you tomorrow in great shape.
“Fighting for peace is like fucking for chastity.”