here are six graphs to understand why your purchases are costing you more and more

The French are not finished with their “problem number one”according to the Bank of France. “High inflation is expected to continue this year and begin to decline early next year”, warned the manager of the institution, François Villeroy de Gallo, on Wednesday, May 11, at France Inter. After 4.8% in April, price growth for the year in all sectors combined could exceed 5% in May and reach 5.4% in June, after 4.8% in April, according to the National Statistical Institute (INSEE), which will reduce the purchasing power of households.

>> Inflation: Ten Tips to Limit Rising Food Spending

How can this worsening of the situation be explained? Part pump prices skyrocketed now carts wins. Visualize on six graphs how this runaway inflation in turn affects food.

Food purchases rose by 3.8% (we expect the worst)

For the first time since the financial crisis in 2008, the consumer price index in the food sector in June could jump by more than 6%. INSEE expects growth of 6.3% compared to June 2021. The forecast for May is 5%, up from 3.8% recorded in April, which has been unheard of for more than a decade.

Among the various components of inflation calculated by INSEE, it is the energy component (fuel, gas, electricity, etc.) that saw the strongest surge in a year, but it seems that a slowdown has begun on this forehead. The steepest curve is now the power curve. Inflation in the services and manufactured goods sectors remains more moderate.

The surge that began last summer on the shelves is the result of outbreaks that hit manufacturers and distributors. Energy costs, drought-hit crops, international competition… Raw materials are getting more expensive, as evidenced by producer prices, which jumped 27% year-over-year in March, according to INSEE. Packaging such as cardboard or plastic also has “took 40 to 50% increase for about a year”, warned agricultural cooperation in November. Cargo transportation is also becoming more expensive, in part due to fuel prices.

With the aftermath of the war in Ukraine and the latest trade talks between retail giants and their suppliers, food price increases could approach 10% by the end of the year, according to several industry players, including the Trade and Distribution Federation.

Oil, vegetables and fish, the main affected families

According to INSEE data released on Friday and counted by supermarkets and other retail outlets, it was in the edible oils and fats department that the boil was the strongest in April, with an overall increase of 7.2% for the year, according to INSEE data released on Friday. They are followed by vegetables, then fish and seafood, both of which are up over 6%.. Four other food families are showing above-average inflation of 3.8%.

The jump in labels is especially noticeable for sunflower and rapeseed oils. These oilseeds fell victim to high global demand and crop failures, even before there was a shortage linked to the war between Ukraine and Russia, the two main producing countries. In just three months, the prices of these oils soared by 11% (and by 15% in a year). Thus, a liter bottle of Lesieur Isio 4 oil has risen in price from an average of 2.93 euros to 3.42 euros between January 1 and May 9, according to the NielsenIQ institute, whose data is quoted by the specialized website Le Web Grande Cons.

As for vegetables, the increase is mainly due to fresh vegetables. Despite very different situations depending on the species, the interprofessional organization Interfel, joined by Franceinfo, notes an increase in energy costs, in particular for greenhouse crops that consume electricity. Other reasons: “higher prices for agricultural inputs”, starting with fertilizers, often produced in Ukraine or Russia, and “bad weather that greatly affected the Mediterranean Basin” these last months.

Fish, on the other hand, is bearing the brunt of rising fuel prices, which greatly affects the profitability of boat trips for fishermen and is partially passed on to consumers. The post-Brexit uncertainty over fishing areas is also fueling panic on the courses, which have been under strain for some time due to the French’s growing appetite for fish, as recalled. Le Figaro. The effects of this inflation are already being felt in consumer habits: “For 15 days, our sales volumes [de poisson] fell by 10-15%.confirmed in March by Système U, Parisian.

Pasta, flour and meat have been hit hard

In addition to the main product families, if we look at the details by product, frozen fruit occupies the first place in the ranking, the price of which in stores has jumped by more than 30% over the year. The increase needs to be put into perspective because it is mostly in 2021 and these items are not being consumed much. The presence of pasta (+12.3%) and flour (+9.7%) in the top 5 is more significant, since these purchases are symbolic. According to NielsenIQ, a kilo of Barilla Spaghetti now costs an average of €1.83, up from €1.53 on January 1st. According to INSEE, producer prices for cereals in France increased by 69% over the year.

Meat occupies several positions in the top 20 most inflationary products, starting with lamb (+7.7%) and beef (+6.5%). “The source of this trend has been identified: the cost of producing energy and animal feed, which had skyrocketed even before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.”note 60 million consumers. Poultry (+6.4%) also suffered from the effects of bird flu.

“First prices”, first in inflation

Inflation hits entry-level products more directly. According to the IRI, in one year of mass distribution, so-called “first price” brands saw their labels burn twice as much as the average. According to NielsenIQ data for 60 million consumers, the price of “first price” pasta even jumped nearly 44% per year, compared to less than 14% for all categories combined. “For some first pasta prices, we are seeing a 70-75% increase in pasta”promotes Sophie Coyne, from 60 million consumersFranceinfo website.

“It’s logicanalyzes Emily Mayer, Consumer Experience Specialist at IRI. These basic products, low prices kept by the absence of marketing and advertising costs, do not have the leverage to cushion the rise in costs. Everything goes to the price on the shelf. Conversely, private labels, and especially national brands, can reduce these additional costs so as not to penalize the consumer.

Are consumers refusing first price products? Not at all, on the contrary. When faced with inflation, the tendency is to go down the market and move to low prices. “First prices remain, in spite of everything, more than 60% cheaper than domestic brands.notes Emily Mayer of IRI. Thus, we see an 8% increase in “first price” sales, while the overall market fell by almost 2%. For Vincent Bronsard, President of Intermarché and Netto, clients can thus “wipe out inflation” changing the composition of your basket, including buying more products under your own brand, “generally 20% cheaper than national brands”.

Differences between brands

Just like first-price goods, so-called “discount” or entry-level brands are more sensitive to the effects of inflation, which they struggle to pass on to something other than the prices displayed on the shelves. This is indicated by the IRI data, which however only applies to French brands such as Netto and Leader Price due to lack of access to data from Lidl and Aldi. No matter what, again, these brands should succeed in attracting new customers through lower prices.