According to research by Allianz Trade, the average increase in prices in supermarkets this year may be more than 8%, i.е. the average growth for the year will be 224 euros.
‘The worst is yet to come’: With high inflation, the cost of food could rise by more than 200 euros per person in France in 2022, credit insurance company Allianz Trade warned in a study released Tuesday.
“Food distributor prices could rise by 8.2%, resulting in an increase in annual food spending of 224 euros per person this year, bringing the total to 2,963 euros,” said Aurélien Duthoit, industry adviser at Allianz Trade.
However, compared to the rest of the Old Continent, the French will not be worse off: thus, the average increase in the food budget in the European Union will be 243 euros, and the Germans will even pay an additional 254 euros in 2022. . . .
The differential, which is due, among other things, to “a very concentrated market structure in France, which gives distributors a significant financial surface and allows them to cover part of the increase in purchasing costs,” deciphers Aurélien Duthoit with AFP.
“The synergy achieved by the groups at the level of their purchasing centers” also helps to limit the impact of increased production costs on selling prices, he adds.
Estimates of food budget increases in 2022 are based on the assumption that distributors pass on to their selling prices 75% of the increase in prices they pay to producers in the agri-food sector.
At present, however, less than half of these product price increases have passed on to consumers.
Indeed, “manufacturers in the European agri-food sector have increased their prices by 14% since the beginning of 2021”, while “food distributors, on the other hand, have increased their prices by only 6%,” Aurélien Duthoit specifies.
According to the credit insurer, the speed at which selling prices will match production prices remains “highly uncertain given the volatility of the current economic environment,” marked in particular by the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The conflict between the two major agricultural powers has already had a very concrete impact on prices: producers are thus charging 53% more on oils and fats than in 2021.
The cost of flour for distributors jumped by 28%, pasta – by 19%. According to the latest INSEE data, inflation for the year rose by 4.8% in April, while food prices rose by 3.8%.
And growth, according to Allianz Trade, is not going to stop, since distributors who have emerged from two years of the pandemic “very profitable both in terms of their turnover and their profits” should not support costs, but only the costs of their sales volumes through price reduction.
For food stamps?
In addition, with advances in technology, sales price strategies are becoming more and more accurate.
As such, discounts given by distributors tend to be more selective than in the past, as they are tailored to each store and even each consumer.
“For some, rising food prices will only affect their ability to save, for others, it could further jeopardize their ability to meet their basic needs,” concludes Allianz Trade.
The warning was issued at a time when the government is preparing to amend the budget by the end of June, which, in particular, should lead to the distribution of the food check.