Despite all government plans, French industry will still lag behind Europe in 2030

SAM in Aveyron, Ford in Blanquefort, near Bordeaux… the list of closed factories continued to grow during Macron’s previous five-year term. Two long years of the pandemic plunged the already weakened tricolor industry into deep lethargy. After repeated lockdowns and chain chaos in the planet’s major trading ports, the industry has paid a heavy price in this deep crisis. The outbreak of conflict in Ukraine and China’s zero-covid policy have once again dealt a hard blow to Made in France, even as French industry has regained its colors in 2021, since then, according to the observatory employment trendeo. and investment, factory creation increased sharply in 2021 in France with a positive balance of 120 new factories (176 creations and 56 closures).

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Faced with all these crises, the government has, in fact, multiplied plans in recent years to try to limit the downturn and reindustrialize the tricolor economy, hard hit by decades of resettlement. Between the recovery plan, the France 2030 plan, and the sustainability plan announced in the spring, the executive hopes to initiate “industrial conquest” as he repeatedly stated. It prevents. Despite all these talks and plans, the industrial “repair” can stretch for decades.

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2 points of GDP more by 2030, France still lagging behind Europe

After several years of offshoring, the share of manufacturing in France’s gross domestic product (GDP) has fallen to around 10%, one of the lowest levels in Europe. According to the estimate of the consulting and audit company PwC France (PricewaterhouseCoopers), published this Thursday, May 12, by 2030 the industry will recover 2 points of French GDP and reach 12%.

For comparison, the European average is 16%. In Germany this share rises to 21% in manufacturing, 19.7% in Italy and 16% in Spain. “France is one of the most deindustrial countries in Europe. We are followed only by Luxembourg, Cyprus or Malta. I think we don’t know about the situation in our industry. Quantitatively, France starts from such a low base that even with a very significant effort, this does not allow not catch up with the Central European, Explain Gallery Olivier Luancy, PwC partner and former industry advisor at Elysée.

About 100 billion euros of investment by 2030

The impact of various plans and relocations on investment, however, is relatively significant. The consulting firm estimates that €98 billion of public and private investment could generate €68 billion in annual value added. “These numbers are unheard of in 40 years. These are efforts that have not been made for a very long time.” emphasizes the industry expert. The fiscal multiplier, kept in the baseline scenario, is that one euro of invested public money will bring in 2.5 euros of private investment.

Some key sectors will be the main beneficiaries of these various plans. “These are electronic components and the production of pharmaceutical products, electric vehicles, the processing of plastic and building materials, in particular due to the decarbonization of these industries.“, is completed by Olivier Lluancy, former Industrial Territories Delegate, created by former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe under the dome of the Grand Palace in November 2018.

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431,000 jobs to be created by 2030

In the area of ​​employment, all this investment could also portend good news in the coming years. “All these plans will create 431,000 direct and indirect jobs. by 2030. These are conservative assumptions, explains Olivier Luancy.

But here, too, these creations will be far from making up for the hundreds of thousands of jobs destroyed after the various oil shocks of the 1970s, when industry accounted for almost 22% of the economy. “Between 1974 and 2018, industrial sectors lost almost half of their workforce (2.5 million jobs), while industry now accounts for only 10.3% of total jobs,” explained the latest report of the parliamentary commission of inquiry into deindustrialization.

Reindustrialization is a task for the next five years

During the presentation of his presidential program in Aubervilliers in early spring, Emmanuel Macron emphasized the need for the reindustrialization of France. This policy should mainly go through increased tax cuts on production and through the France 2030 plan presented with great fanfare at the Elysee Palace in autumn 2021 to an audience of ministers, business leaders, economists and students.

“In order to succeed in this reindustrialization, we must work on new technological challenges and at the same time work with the territories. This reindustrialization of the territories can go through the production of Mulliez jeans or even Daan Tech dishwashers. This second lever is not enough. developed in public policy. A territorial approach would be useful in the France 2030 plan, for example“, emphasizes Olivier Luancy.

On the eve of the appointment of a new government, Emmanuel Macron knows that he will have to take on this case if he does not want to quickly find himself in a predicament.

Re-industrialization is a pressing need for Macron II’s five-year term